Boko Haram’s Dangerous Expansion into Northwest Nigeria

During the past year, the Nigerian militant group Boko Haram has expanded from its traditional area of operations in northeastern Nigeria’s Borno State and is now capable of conducting attacks across a 900-mile breadth of northern Nigeria, including in the strategic state of Sokoto.[1] Due to Sokoto’s geographic location and religious significance—Sokoto is home to Nigeria’s highest Islamic authority, the sultan of Sokoto[2]—it is the focal point in Boko Haram’s strategy to purge northern Nigeria of its traditional Islamic leadership. Boko Haram’s primary goal is to establish Shari`a law in Nigeria by force and to “dismantle” the Nigerian government and its secular institutions.[3] Sokoto is also only 300 miles from “Azawad,” the separatist region of northern Mali that is now under the control of al-Qa`ida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Ansar Eddine and the Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO).[4] This makes it a natural entry point for AQIM militants to infiltrate Nigerian territory by way of Niger. In 2012, the North-West zone[5] suffered a coordinated series of Boko Haram attacks, including the first ever attacks in Sokoto on July 30. The region also witnessed AQIM-style kidnapping operations. This article analyzes Boko Haram’s attacks in Sokoto and its broader offensive in the North-West zone, how the group’s strategy toward the sultan and traditional Muslim rulers has bred dissent within its ranks, and whether AQIM has infiltrated the North-West zone through alliances with breakaway Boko Haram factions. North-West Zone Offensive Reaches Sokoto On July 30, 2012, Sokoto became the third state in Nigeria’s North-West zone to suffer from major Boko Haram attacks since January 2012. The attacks, the first carried out by Boko Haram in Sokoto, were not without warning. On January 20, 2012, approximately 100 Boko Haram fighters launched an offensive on government buildings and police stations in the North-West zone’s most populous state, Kano, killing an estimated 186 people, more than 150 of whom were civilians.[6] Afterwards, Boko Haram’s spokesman said in a phone statement that “this is an open message to the amir of Sokoto Alhaji Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar III…What happened in Kano will be inevitable in Sokoto unless you intervene and ensure the immediate and unconditional release of our members who were specifically arrested in the city of Sokoto.”[7] Several months later, Boko Haram launched major attacks in the second most populous state in the North-West zone, Kaduna, which is in the Middle Belt region where the Muslim northern and Christian southern regions of Nigeria meet.[8] On Easter, April 8, at least one suicide bomber in a vehicle detonated explosives near a church in Kaduna, killing 41 people.[9] On June 17, Boko Haram members detonated explosives near three other churches in Kaduna, including one vehicle suicide bombing, killing 19 worshippers during Sunday services.[10] On July 30, Boko Haram fulfilled its January threat and attacked Sokoto. Two suicide bombers in vehicles detonated their explosives at the office of the assistant inspector general of police at the zonal police headquarters and the Unguwar Rogo divisional police headquarters simultaneously. Later that day, while most residents in Sokoto prepared to break the Ramadan fast, Boko Haram fighters on motorcycles fired shots at the Arkila police station.[11] On the same day in Kaduna, suspected Boko Haram members on motorcycles fired gunshots at the home of Nigeria’s vice president, Namadi Sambo, in Zaria, Kaduna, killing one civilian.[12] Claiming the attacks in Sokoto, Boko Haram’s spokesman said on August 1, “We wish to extend our profound gratitude to Almighty Allah for giving us the opportunity to fulfill the promise we made [after the January 20 Kano attacks] on launching spontaneous attacks in Sokoto…We attacked Sokoto because many of our brethren have been incarcerated there.”[13] The assault on Sokoto continued on August 6, when suspected Boko Haram members on motorcycles threw grenades at the Shagari police station, which is located next door to the residence of Nigeria’s former president, Shehu Shagari.[14] The attacks in the North-West zone show that Boko Haram now operates throughout the 900-mile breadth of northern Nigeria, from Boko Haram’s original base in Borno State in the far northeast to Sokoto State in the far northwest.[15] Moreover, the dispersal of Boko Haram fighters from the northeast is likely to gain pace as a result of the security forces crackdown in Borno, Yobe, Kano and Adamawa states since September 2012, in which more than 200 fighters have been killed or arrested, including five high-ranking members.[16] Message to the Sultan As part of its “grand plans to Islamize Nigeria,” Boko Haram seeks to transfer religious authority from the sultan of Sokoto and other traditional leaders to Boko Haram’s religious leaders through a campaign of intimidation and assassination.[17] At the same time, the sultan has shamed Boko Haram for “violating the sanctity and honor of Muslims,” while calling for “peaceful coexistence” between Christians and Muslims, an “end to the bloodshed,” and for “dialogue and communication” to address Nigerian Muslims’ grievances instead of “wreaking havoc on society.”[18] Two of the closest government officials to the sultan have also attempted to lead negotiations: Sambo Dasuki, Nigeria’s national security adviser and a cousin of the sultan, who in July 2012 contacted amirs, Islamic scholars and moderate Salafists to help broker a cease-fire, and Namadi Sambo, who was the top government representative in secret negotiations held in Saudi Arabia in August 2012.[19] Yet Boko Haram’s primary leader, Abubakar Shekau, has not participated in Dasuki’s or Sambo’s negotiation attempts